According to a recent report by RaboResearch, the global poultry market is expected to see strong growth in the coming year, with consumption predicted to increase between 2.5% and 3% in 2024. After several years of slower progress, this marks a return to historic growth rates for the sector.
The appeal of poultry remains strong across many markets, driven by competitive pricing compared to other proteins, as well as high demand from both retail and foodservice sectors. In addition, growing sustainability efforts have further fueled demand for chicken. Lower production costs and recovering demand in most regions are expected to support this upward trend.
However, not all regions are seeing the same benefits. Rapid production increases combined with economic pressures and low consumer confidence have led to oversupply in markets such as China and Japan. This oversupply has resulted in lower prices and rising stock levels, as well as significant drops in raw chicken imports during the first half of 2024.
While many markets are experiencing balanced conditions, with healthy trade expected to continue in the second half of the year, uncertainty still lingers. Price volatility, especially for certain cuts like chicken feet, remains a concern due to weak demand in China. However, breast meat and processed chicken prices are expected to stay strong in major markets across Europe and Asia.
Consumption in developed regions like Europe, the United States, and Japan is projected to continue growing, spurred by better affordability and increasing demand for value-added products. Still, there are potential risks on the horizon, including ongoing tensions in the Middle East, which could disrupt trade routes between Asia and Europe.
Animal diseases and geopolitical conflicts present additional challenges that could significantly impact global trade flows. Avian influenza, although less of a burden this year compared to last, continues to be a threat. The report highlights a recent outbreak of Newcastle disease in Brazil, which led to trade restrictions from key importers like Japan, China, and Saudi Arabia. Though no new cases have been reported, the situation remains under close watch.
While the European Union has experienced fewer avian influenza outbreaks this year, and South Africa has remained free of the disease in commercial farming, the United States continues to battle outbreaks that have severely affected its egg industry. As colder months approach in the Northern Hemisphere, the risk of new outbreaks is expected to rise.
With ongoing risks such as animal diseases, fluctuating feed prices, and geopolitical tensions, careful management of supply growth will be crucial to maintaining balanced market conditions. Without this discipline, there is a risk of oversupply, as seen in China and Japan, which could undermine the current positive market outlook.
