Broiler production in June totaled 3.938 billion pounds, just 3 million pounds more than June of last year. This makes the second-quarter total 11.527 billion pounds. Total production in the first half of the year was 2.8 percent over the same period in 2022. For the second half of the year, production growth over 2022 is not expected to be as rapid. This is in part because broiler production at the end of last year was exceptionally strong, especially in August. In addition, broiler-type chickens hatched in May and June were down slightly year-over-year. These hatched birds mature in July and August. Preliminary weekly data suggest July slaughter was slightly lower compared to last year. Based on recent hatchery and preliminary slaughter data, the third-quarter production estimate was adjusted down by 150 million pounds to 12.0 billion pounds. With the fourth-quarter forecast unchanged at 11.9 billion pounds, production for the second half would total 23.9 billion pounds, an increase of 0.6 percent from the second half of 2022. In total, 2023 production is projected at 46.976 billion pounds, an increase of 1.7 percent from 2022.
Based on expectations of a retrenchment in the sector, as well as a lowered broiler price
forecast that will put continued pressure on margins, broiler production in 2024 is adjusted down to 47.47 billion pounds. If realized, this would still be an increase of 1 percent from the 2023 projection.
Broiler meat in cold storage at the end of June totaled 826.8 million pounds, an increase of 12 percent from a year earlier. Of this total, 69.4 million pounds were chicken wings, 67.6 million pounds were leg quarters, and 14.0 million pounds were whole chickens. However, the majority of the year-over-year increase was in breast meat, which totaled 235.7 million pounds at the end of June, accounting for 28.5 percent of all broiler meat in cold storage. Based on recent data, projected 2023 ending stocks are adjusted up to 880 million pounds. The ending stocks projection for 2024 is unchanged at 900 million pounds.
Projected Broiler Meat Exports Decreased, Imports Increased
U.S. broiler exports in June totaled 587.7 million pounds, down 2 percent from last June and the lowest-volume month this year. Shipments were notably lower year-over-year to Vietnam (-17.2 million pounds), Ghana (-10.6 million pounds), Angola (-10.2 million pounds), Haiti (-5.9 million pounds), the Philippines (-5.6 million pounds), and Colombia (-4.7 million pounds). In early June, Colombia temporarily stopped granting permits to import U.S. poultry. While the interruption to trade was brief, it was not negligible. Colombia was the 13th-largest destination for exported U.S. broiler meat by volume in 2022 at 152.7 million pounds, representing 2.6 percent of exports. In the first half of 2023, Colombia accounted for 1.5 percent of broiler exports. Based on both recent export data and downward adjustments to production, projected U.S. 2023 broiler exports are adjusted down to 7.293 billion pounds, virtually unchanged from 2022. Projected exports in 2024 are also adjusted down to 7.515 billion pounds. As a share of projected production, this would be slightly higher than 2023 at almost 16 percent.
U.S. broiler imports in June totaled 12.1 million pounds, of which 8.4 million pounds were shipped from Chile. This is a return to form for Chile after outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) limited shipments in April and May. Assuming no further outbreaks, import projections are adjusted up in the remainder of 2023 and in 2024, reflecting expectations of shipments from Chile. Imports in 2023 are projected at 115 million pounds, and in 2024 at 130 million pounds. Both are still well below imports in 2022, which totaled 176 million pounds.
