Broiler production totaled 4,052 million pounds in January, an increase of 2.0 percent from
January 2023. This is due to both 0.6 percent higher average weights and to January 2024
having one more slaughter day, which more than offset a lower per day slaughter rate
compared to January 2023. With the publication of the Poultry Slaughter Annual Summary in February, total broiler production for 2023 was revised slightly and now totals 46,387 million pounds. This revised figure is 4 million pounds above last month’s estimate and an increase of less than 1 percent from the 2022 total.
Weekly preliminary slaughter data indicates that average weights remained elevated during
February. Based on this and strong slaughter in January, projected first-quarter production is adjusted up by 50 million pounds to 11,600 million pounds. Based on the expectation of an increasing margin between production costs and wholesale prices, projected fourth-quarter production is also adjusted up by 50 million pounds to 11,750 million pounds. In total, projected 2024 broiler production is adjusted up by 100 million pounds to 46,875 million pounds. If realized, this would be an increase of about 1 percent from 2023.
Broiler Exports Decreased, Imports Increased
Broiler exports totaled 608.7 million pounds in January, a decrease of 3.4 percent from January 2023. Shipments to Mexico, accounting for 22.8 percent of exports, were similar to last January at 138.9 million pounds. Year-over-year increases in shipments to Taiwan (+22.7 million pounds), the United Arab Emirates (+12.6 million pounds), the Philippines (+10.1 million pounds), Georgia (+4.0 million pounds), and other markets were not large enough to offset decreases in shipments to China (-23.4 million pounds), Angola (-14.6 million pounds), Turkey (-8.5 million pounds), Colombia (-7.8 million pounds), Haiti (-6.5 million pounds), and South Africa (-6.5 million pounds). Projected exports for 2024 are adjusted down by 50 million pounds to 7,165 million pounds. This reflects U.S. prices that are less competitive in the international marketplace concurrent with rising output from Brazil. At the same time, China’s demand for U.S. chicken continues to decline. China accounted for declining shares of U.S. broiler exports in the latter part of last year and accounted for only 1.4 percent of exports in January. On expectations of lower sales to several key markets during the year, the forecast for 2024 exports is reduced to 7,165 million pounds. Projected broiler exports would account for 15.3 percent of projected 2024 production.
Broiler imports totaled 15.2 million pounds in January, 3.6 million pounds over the same month last year. Imports from Chile totaled 11.2 million pounds, or 73.8 percent of broiler imports. The strength of imports supports the current 2024 broiler import projection of 215 million pounds, an increase of 84 million pounds over the 2023 total.
Broiler Price Projections Unchanged
The February average national composite wholesale broiler price was 126.18 cents per pound. This is down 2.1 cents from January, but up 4.5 cents from last February. While recent prices are below the peak prices of the last few years, they remain above the 5-year average. Reflecting recent price data, projected quarterly average prices for 2024 are unchanged, with an annual average projection of 128 cents per pound. 
Table Egg Production Adjusted Down in 2024
Table egg production totaled 665.1 million dozen in January, up 2.6 percent from January 2023. The January flock averaged 310.4 million birds, only slightly above last year, and 19.3 million birds below the 5-year average for January. The year-over-year increase in egg production is mainly attributed to an average daily lay rate of 82.9 eggs per 100 layers, a 2.5-percent increase from last January. Table egg layer inventory was 309.3 million birds on the first of February, down slightly both month over month and year over year. Based on the decline in flock size, projected first-quarter table egg production is adjusted down by 10 million dozen to 1,940 million dozen. The outlying quarterly projections are unchanged at 1,975 million dozen in the second quarter, 2,015 million dozen in the third, and 2,060 million dozen in the fourth quarter. In total, the 2024 table egg projection is 7,990 million dozen, an increase of 1.6 percent year over year.
Data revisions from NASS resulted in adjusted egg production totals back to 2021. Table egg production in 2021 was revised slightly higher to 8,136 million dozen. For 2022, table egg production was revised up by 44 million dozen to 7,825 million dozen, while hatching egg production was revised down slightly to 1,291 million dozen. For 2023, table egg production was revised 23 million dozen lower to 7,864 million dozen, while hatching egg production was revised up 21 million pounds to 1,279 million dozen.
The most recent case of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in commercial table egg
layers was reported on January 3rd in Merced County, California. After a series of cases in
California, there was a notable impact on the national inventory of cage-free eggs and a
subsequent increase in the weekly benchmark California egg price. The cage-free egg price
peaked at 559 cents per dozen in the week ending February 9th. Cage-free inventories have since recovered, reaching 317.6 thousand cases on February 26th, up 63.6 thousand cases from the low point of 254 thousand cases on January 22nd. The California benchmark price for the week ending March 1st was 361 cents per dozen. In February, the national cage-free table egg laying flock totaled 124.9 million hens, up 2.6 million from the January total. While the cage- free flock did decline in size during the most recent wave of HPAI cases, it has increased since a year ago, with this February’s total nearly 10 million birds more than the same month last year. In February, cage-free layers made up about 40.4 percent of the national flock.
Egg Price Projection Adjusted Down in First-Quarter 2024
The daily New York wholesale price for large eggs averaged 312.6 cents per dozen in February. Daily prices increased steeply in late January and early February as inventories of large table eggs declined. Daily prices held steady at 332 cents per dozen February 8th through the 20th before falling again as inventories recovered. Large-egg inventory totaled 723.2 thousand cases on February 26th. Daily New York prices for that week averaged 256.6 cents per dozen. Based on recent price data, the first-quarter projected average price was adjusted down to 250 cents per dozen, while the outlying quarterly projections are unchanged at 160 cents per dozen in the second quarter, 145 cents per dozen in the third quarter, and 165 cents per dozen in the fourth quarter. The projected annual average price for 2024 is 180.0 cents per dozen, down 12.4 cents from the 2023 average.
Projected 2024 Egg and Egg Product Exports Unchanged
Combined egg and egg product exports in January totaled 17.9 million shell-egg equivalent dozen, an increase of 2.3 million from January 2023. Egg product exports increased by 3.4
million dozen equivalent compared to the same month a year earlier, while shell-egg exports decreased by 1.0 million dozen. Projected egg and egg product exports for 2024 are unchanged from last month at 241 million shell-egg equivalent dozen. This is down 9.4 million from 2023, but up by 14.5 million dozen from the 2022 total. Projected exports would account for 2.6 percent of projected table and hatching egg production in 2024.
Projected Turkey Production Adjusted Down for 2024
Total turkey production in 2023 was revised up by 2 million pounds to 5,457 million pounds, up 4.5 percent from 2022. Turkey production in January 2024 totaled 435.2 million pounds, down 2.3 percent year over year. A 2.0 percent increase in the monthly average live weight was not enough to offset a 3.2 percent decrease in total slaughter. One more slaughter day in the month was insufficient to offset a 7.6 percent decline in per day slaughter. On a per day basis, production was down 6.7 percent from last January. Monthly turkey poult placements were down year over year for the third consecutive month. Lower placements in November, December, and January indicate fewer birds for slaughter in March, April, and May. Based on January production and recent placement data, projected turkey production is adjusted down 10 million pounds to 1,300 million pounds in the first quarter and down 15 million pounds to 1,310 million pounds in the second quarter. The third- and fourth-quarter projections are unchanged at 1,360 and 1,400 million pounds. This results in an annual projection of 5,370 million pounds, a decrease of 1.6 percent from 2023.
Since 2022, three waves of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) have struck U.S. turkey flocks, with the most recent cases in commercial meat turkey flocks reported on February 21st in Dallas County, Missouri. Since the most recent wave of the outbreak started in October 2023, just over 3.3 million meat turkeys have been depopulated. While the initial wave in the spring of 2022 was the shortest, lasting only 4 months, it resulted in the most turkey loss. While Minnesota had the largest number of losses in the first two waves, South Dakota has had the most depopulations so far in the most recent wave.
Turkey Imports Adjusted Down; Exports Adjusted Up Slightly
Turkey imports totaled 2.2 million pounds in January, with the majority (1.3 million pounds) coming from Canada. In January of 2023, imports totaled 6.3 million pounds, with a majority (4.7 million pounds) coming from Chile. Of the two import partners, Chile accounted for the majority of the elevated shipments in 2022 and early 2023. Reflecting lowered shipments from Chile, the 2024 import projection is adjusted down to 51 million pounds. This would be up from the 2023 total, but still 34 million pounds shy of the 2022 import total.
Turkey exports totaled 36.7 million pounds in January, up 10 million pounds from January 2023. Shipments to Mexico increased by 7.5 million pounds from last January to 25.9 million pounds, or 70.7 percent of January shipments. Based on recent data, the 2024 export projection was revised up by 5 million pounds in the first quarter for a total of 520 million pounds. This would represent 9.7 percent of projected 2024 production.
Turkey Prices Adjusted Up in First-Quarter 2024
Weekly average wholesale prices for frozen whole hen turkeys in the first 9 weeks of 2024 ranged from a low of 82 cents per pound in the week ending January 12th to a high of 105 cents per pound in the week ending February 2nd. Since that week, weekly averages have not fallen below 95 cents per pound. Prices averaged 96 cents per pound for the month of February and averaged 103 cents per pound in the week ending March 1st. After declining counter-seasonally for most of last year, wholesale whole hen prices have begun to exhibit a more seasonally typical climb. Based on recent data, the projected first-quarter average is adjusted up to 97 cents per pound. With the second- through fourth-quarter projections unchanged at 105, 115, and 116 cents per pound, the annual average is projected at 108 cents per pound, down 32 cents from the 2023 average.
