The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from the USDA paints a nuanced picture of the red meat and poultry production landscape for the upcoming years. Here’s a breakdown of the key changes and challenges outlined in the report:
- Beef Production Dynamics:
- Beef production is facing headwinds due to lowered steer and heifer slaughter.
- Anticipated increases in beef production for 2024 are driven by higher placements of steer and heifer, particularly in the first half of the year.
- Pork Sector Challenges:
- Pork production is grappling with the impact of lighter dressed weights in Q4.
- The 2023 forecast reveals an uptick in pork imports and a decrease in exports, with steady projections for 2024.
- Broiler Industry Outlook:
- Broiler production is set to decline, influenced by reduced output in Q4.
- International demand constraints and tighter domestic supplies contribute to a decline in broiler exports for both 2023 and 2024.
- Turkey Production and Exports:
- Turkey production is decreasing in response to market weaknesses.
- While turkey exports see an increase in 2023, predictions for 2024 suggest a decrease due to reduced domestic production.
- Trade Trends:
- Beef imports are expected to rise in 2023 and 2024, fueled by recent trade data and stronger anticipated imports from Australia.
- Pork imports see an increase, while exports dip in 2023, with stability expected in 2024.
- Price Forecast Shifts:
- Cattle and hog price forecasts remain unchanged for 2023 and 2024.
- Broiler prices are on a downward trend for 2023 but show an upward trajectory for 2024.
- Turkey prices are expected to decrease in both years, reflecting weak demand.
