The poultry and egg production sector is bracing for a moderate impact in 2024, with nearly 20 million commercial poultry depopulated between November and December of the previous year. Brian Earnest, CoBank’s lead economist for animal protein, noted that the majority of affected birds were egg-laying hens, with additional impacts on turkey breeder facilities and a few broiler breeders.
While outbreaks in table egg laying operations have slowed since the beginning of the year, recent USDA Animal Plant and Health Inspection Service (APHIS) data reveals that two table egg pullet operations—one in Kansas and one in California—have resulted in the depopulation of over 1 million birds.
From a market perspective, Earnest indicates that the U.S. is currently experiencing a lull in egg demand, with supply reaching seasonal peaks. He suggests that the timing of the impact on supply might have a less immediate effect on prices compared to the end of 2022. However, with Easter approaching, there is anticipation of increased demand, particularly if the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreak persists.
Cage-free operations, Earnest notes, have been particularly affected, causing inconsistent supply for that specific program.
In its latest “World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates” report, the USDA lowered its 2024 egg production forecast to 9.33 billion dozen due to HPAI-related culling. The agency also adjusted the egg price forecast from $1.50/doz. to $1.65/doz.
The Consumer Price Index, newly published, indicates an 8.9% increase in egg prices from November to December, up from a 2.2% increase the previous month.
Additionally, the USDA’s report reflects adjustments in the turkey and broiler production forecasts for 2024. Turkey production is forecasted to be 5.47 billion lbs., with a price forecast reduction from $1.27/lb. to $1.11/lb. On the other hand, broiler production is expected to reach 46.68 billion lbs., with a price forecast increase from $1.24/lb. to $1.26/lb.
