The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook is an annual report produced jointly by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). This comprehensive report provides a ten-year forward-looking assessment of trends and prospects in the global agriculture and fisheries sectors. It covers a wide range of commodities, including cereals, oilseeds, sugar, meats, dairy products, fish, biofuels, and more. The Outlook combines commodity-specific expertise and economic modeling to present projections that can inform policymakers, farmers, and stakeholders about future market developments. It analyzes various factors influencing agricultural markets, including economic growth, demographics, policy developments, technological advancements, and environmental challenges. This makes it an essential tool for understanding potential future scenarios and making informed decisions in the agricultural sector.
The poultry sector has seen significant growth over the past few decades, driven by increasing demand for meat, particularly in developing countries. The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides a detailed analysis of this trend and offers projections for the next decade. The demand for poultry meat is expected to continue its upward trajectory, driven by its affordability, lower production costs compared to other meats, and consumer perceptions of it being a healthier protein source. Developing countries, especially in Asia and Africa, are projected to see the highest growth rates in poultry consumption. Rising incomes, urbanization, and changing dietary preferences in these regions contribute to this trend. For instance, poultry consumption in developing countries is projected to increase by nearly 25% over the next decade.
Poultry production is anticipated to increase significantly, with major contributions from countries like the United States, Brazil, China, and the European Union. Advances in breeding, feeding, and health management are expected to enhance production efficiency, leading to higher yields and reduced costs. The emphasis on sustainable practices, including better waste management, reduced greenhouse gas emissions, and improved animal welfare standards, will become more prominent. Global poultry production is expected to rise by approximately 18% over the next ten years.
Countries with competitive advantages in poultry production, such as Brazil and the United States, will likely continue to dominate global poultry exports. Import demand is expected to rise in regions with insufficient domestic production to meet consumption needs, particularly in the Middle East, Africa, and parts of Asia. Stricter food safety regulations and standards in importing countries could influence production practices and export capabilities, while trade agreements and tariffs will play a crucial role in shaping the global poultry trade landscape.
Controlling and preventing poultry diseases, such as avian influenza, remains a significant challenge that can impact production and trade. Climate change poses risks to feed crop production and poultry farming, necessitating adaptive strategies to mitigate its effects. Innovations in biotechnology, automation, and data analytics offer opportunities to enhance productivity and sustainability in the poultry sector.
The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides valuable insights into the future of the poultry industry, highlighting trends in demand, production, trade, and policy impacts. While the sector is poised for growth, it also faces challenges that require proactive measures to ensure sustainable and resilient development. Policymakers, industry stakeholders, and farmers can leverage these projections to navigate the evolving landscape and capitalize on emerging opportunities in the global poultry market.
